Mortgage rates are expected to ease to roughly 6% next year

HOUSTON, TX (November 19, 2025) – Existing-home sales are projected to rise by around 14% in 2026, according to National Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Yun delivered his 2026 housing outlook today during the Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum at NAR NXT, The REALTOR® Experience, in Houston.

Yun said the expected rebound reflects easing mortgage rates, continued job gains, and improving market stability after several challenging years. Home prices are forecast to increase by 4% next year, supported by steady demand and persistent supply shortages.

“Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales,” Yun said. “Home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining.”

Mortgage rates are projected to decline modestly, averaging around 6% in 2026. Yun emphasized that while rates are influenced by more than Federal Reserve decisions alone, broader economic factors are contributing to gradually lower borrowing costs.

“As we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better,” said Yun. “It’s not going to be a big decline, but it will be a modest decline that will improve affordability.”

Buyers will see the greatest affordability improvements in regions with the most robust new housing supply, particularly in high-construction markets like Houston. Expanding inventory in such areas will help more first-time buyers achieve homeownership.

“Houston is creating more home construction, and therefore making home prices much more reasonable,” said Yun. “Given the job creation, buyers will inevitably be showing up to Houston once the mortgage rate goes down.”

Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, presented insights from the newly released 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, highlighting how shifting demographics are reshaping today’s housing market.

Lautz noted that the typical age of a home buyer today is 59, and the typical age of a repeat buyer is 62. She also shared that the number one reason people move today is because they want to be closer to friends and family.

“I call this the grandbaby effect,” Lautz said. “This is a different type of buyer.”

In contrast, first-time buyers continue to face steep challenges, with the share of first-time buyers hitting an all-time low of 21% and the median first-time buyer age reaching 40.

“The biggest struggle first-time buyers have is finding an affordable property, and many of them struggle to save for a down payment,” said Lautz. “The biggest source of pain that they are citing is high rent and student loan debt.”

Despite the affordability challenges, the use of real estate agents remains strong among both buyers and sellers. Lautz shared that 88% of buyers and 91% of sellers used an agent or broker in their most recent transaction.

Lautz cited the value agents provide in “pricing the home competitively in a changing market, marketing that home, and finding a qualified buyer.”

Tucson, AZ  (November 17, 2025) — Larsen Baker is pleased to announce 33,028 square feet of successful lease renewal activity across its Southern Arizona portfolio. The following tenants have renewed or extended their leases:

• The Slot Machine Store renewed 2,062 square feet of retail space at Prince Fairview Plaza, 923 W. Prince Rd., Tucson, AZ 85705.
•  Fast Payday Loans renewed 955 square feet of retail space at Manzanita Plaza, 3000 W. Valencia Rd., Suite 276, Tucson, AZ 85746.
•  Spa Valencia renewed 1,780 square feet of retail space at Manzanita Plaza, 3000 W. Valencia Rd., Suite 238, Tucson, AZ 85746.
• Leman Academy renewed 7,700 square feet of office space at Sunrise Corporate, 3300 E. Sunrise Dr., Suite 150, Tucson, AZ 85718.
• Advantage Micro Corporation extended 2,400 square feet of flex space at Camino Seco Business Park, 150 S. Camino Seco Blvd., Suites 117–118, Tucson, AZ 85710.
• Brookbanks Pool Care renewed 1,000 square feet of flex space at Camino Seco Business Park, 140 S. Camino Seco Blvd., Suite 420, Tucson, AZ 85710.
• My Sheet Metal Shop renewed 1,000 square feet of flex space at Camino Seco Business Park, 140 S. Camino Seco Blvd., Suite 206, Tucson, AZ 85710.
• Advanced Car Care renewed 1,000 square feet of flex space at Camino Seco Business Park, 140 S. Camino Seco Blvd., Suite 417, Tucson, AZ 85710.
• Cazares Electric renewed 1,000 square feet of flex space at Camino Seco Business Park, 140 S. Camino Seco Blvd., Suite 423, Tucson, AZ 85710.
• Robert Knight & Jeff Perno renewed 2,000 square feet of flex space at Camino Seco Business Park, 150 S. Camino Seco Blvd., Suite 120 A/B, Tucson, AZ 85710.
• Adoption Solutions renewed 783 square feet of office space at 1200 N. El Dorado Place, Suite B-260, Tucson, AZ 85712.
• AAA Roadside renewed 3,750 square feet of retail space at Marana Marketplace, 3780 W. River Rd., Suite 102, Marana, AZ 85749.
• The Foot Spa renewed 1,444 square feet of retail space at Cochise Plaza, 2309 E. Fry Blvd., Sierra Vista, AZ 85635.
• Advanced Conditioning renewed 1,120 square feet of retail space at Plaza Williams Center, 5350 E. Broadway Blvd., Suite 156, Tucson, AZ 85711.
• Old Pueblo CrossFit renewed 3,534 square feet of retail space at Circle Plaza North, 7225 E. Broadway Blvd., Tucson, AZ 85710.
• Native Seeds renewed 1,500 square feet of retail space at Frontier Village, 3919 E. Pima St., Tucson, AZ 85712.

These renewals reflect consistent leasing momentum across Larsen Baker’s retail, office, and flex properties throughout Southern Arizona.

ATLAS Capital Partners Develops Class A Industrial Hub; Simone Charitable Foundation Acquires Property with Colliers Representing Buyer

Phoenix (November 14, 2025) – A newly completed logistics facility in Gilbert, developed by ATLAS, a Scottsdale-based real estate investment and development firm, has been sold for $26.8 million. The 60,500 square-foot property, situated on just over eight acres at 3797 S. Silverado Ct., with immediate access to Loop 202 via both Gilbert and Lindsay roads, serves as a regional distribution center for Frito Lay PepsiCo.

“Gilbert continues to attract some of the most sophisticated industrial users in the country,” said Brian Ackerman, executive vice president with Colliers, who represents the buyer, Simone Charitable Foundation. “This acquisition reflects our client’s focus on long-term, high-quality real estate backed by strong credit tenants. The combination of location, building quality, and tenancy made this a highly compelling investment.”

“When we identified this overlooked site, we immediately saw the opportunity to create a low-coverage industrial facility tailored for an occupier needing outdoor storage,” said Chris Walton, Founder & CEO of ATLAS. “This project embodies the distinctive, creative opportunities we target and the inherent versatility our platform delivers.” ATLAS was represented by Will Strong and team from Cushman & Wakefield.

ATLAS developed this best-in-class industrial facility, featuring a low-coverage site design including a secured, visually screened yard.  Delivered in late 2024, the single-tenant facility was designed as a build-to-suit for PepsiCo Global Real Estate and is leased on a long-term basis. The design features a 161-foot building depth, a 130-foot truck court, and over two acres of secured concrete yard, providing ample trailer parking and fleet storage. The location offers direct visibility from Loop 202 and immediate access via both the Gilbert and Lindsay Road interchanges, enabling efficient regional distribution throughout Metro Phoenix and beyond.

The site lies within one of Metro Phoenix’s most land-constrained and sought-after submarkets, benefiting from its proximity to major employers—including Intel’s Chandler campus—and a growing base of technology and supply chain companies.

Since its establishment in 2020, ATLAS has developed and acquired more than $450 million in projects, including this 60,500-square-foot, last-mile distribution facility in Gilbert, leased to Frito-Lay (PepsiCo). The Gilbert project highlights ATLAS’s strategy of delivering differentiated low-coverage industrial properties in high-demand markets, combining tenant-specific build-to-suit solutions with strategic land acquisition and development expertise.

Simone Charitable Foundation purchased the property from ATLAS, reinforcing strong investor demand for high-quality, mission-critical industrial assets in the region.